Oil prices are swinging dramatically, with recent peaks pushing close to a major milestone: $100 a barrel.

The possibility of Russia invading Ukraine is the driving force, but more is at play than the risk of war. And complicating predictions further, the possibility of a deal with Iran is hovering in the background.

Here's what to know as crude oil prices hover within striking distance of the triple digits last seen in 2014.

Brent crude prices surged to as high as $99.50 early on Tuesday, after Russia said it was sending troops to eastern Ukraine. There is considerable debate about whether that would constitute an invasion, though U.S. and European countries are drawing up sanctions.

However it's defined, an invasion would clearly have a devastating impact on Ukraine. 

An invasion would also immediately affect energy markets. Russia is one of the world's largest producers of oil and natural gas, accounting for 17% of the world's natural gas and 12% of its oil.

BY NPR CAMILA DOMONOSKE - 22/02/2022